What a 97.5% Refinery Utilization Rate Is Actually Telling You

Refiners convert crude oil into fuels like diesel, and capacity utilization measures how much of that machinery is running: 97.5%, as of 11 September, per Econbrowser, means the industry is leaving itself very little room to squeeze more product out of the crude it buys. When utilization sits that high, the constraint on diesel supply is no longer crude availability so much as the plants themselves.

A second number does the interpretive work. Econbrowser notes that the ratio of the diesel price to Brent crude has generally risen since the war began, meaning diesel is worth more relative to the crude it is made from than it used to be. A near-maxed refining system plus a fattening diesel-to-crude ratio is the classic shape of a tight distillate market — the fuel that runs freight, farms and generators, not just passenger cars.