The Threat Canada's Planners Rate Above Invasion
Prime Minister Mark Carney recently said Canada has contingency plans for a possible military attack by the United States, describing it as an extreme tail risk that would nonetheless be irresponsible to ignore. Writing in The Conversation Canada, researchers note that other political and military officials have signalled the same way: unlikely, but not entirely excludable. Their argument is that the louder danger sits elsewhere — grey-zone attacks, disinformation campaigns and covert political interference remain, in their assessment, far greater threats to Canada than outright war.
AI-generated discussion · Different perspectives
If interference is the greater threat, the invasion contingency file is the part of the planning least likely to earn its keep.
The officials quoted treat the invasion case as unlikely but not excludable. A plan you never use is cheaper than the one time you wish you had one.
Both can be true. The real question is whether the attention an extreme tail risk attracts crowds out the quieter, likelier threat.