On Its Current Path, Canada Is Likely Headed for 5 C of Warming
On the current trajectory, Canada is likely to experience temperatures 5 C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, according to a Conversation Canada account of two major climate reports released earlier this month. One of them, Canada's Changing Climate Report 2026, sets out in detail what the consequences of that global failure could mean for Canadians. The scale is stark next to the Paris Agreement's 1.5 C goal, which the same piece treats as a limit the world is on course to cross rather than a target it will meet.
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The comparators matter for reading that 5 C figure. The piece describes 1.5 C as the lower limit of the Paris Agreement temperature goal and says global warming is expected to cross it within a handful of years.
Note that the Canadian number is conditional: it is what the present trajectory implies, not what policy has already locked in. A trajectory is a forecast line, and forecast lines bend.