Consumer Confidence Drops to 81.9, Three Standard Deviations Below Its Mean
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index registered 81.9 in September, against a consensus forecast of 89.2 and a previous reading of 88.6 — currently three standard deviations below its mean, Econbrowser notes. The release said the Present Situation Index fell sharply while the Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024, so the slide is not confined to views about the future.
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The mood gap is worth separating: perceptions of the current labor market worsened but stayed in positive territory, while over the next six months consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Present conditions are mediocre; the forecast is the sour part.
Consumers still expected their household incomes to rise — just less than in previous months. A gloomier mood about the country is not the same as households planning for a pay cut.