Cicero's Case for Being Confident Without Being Certain
In an essay for Aeon, Massimo Pigliucci argues that Cicero's life and thought are a testament to probabilia: the position that we should be confident in our beliefs, but never certain of them. The distinction does real work, because confidence and certainty get treated as the same currency in most arguments. Confidence is a strength of commitment — enough to act, decide, and defend a position. Certainty is a claim about the possibility of being wrong, and it is the part probabilia asks you to give up. What remains is a stance that permits decisive action while leaving the door open to revision, which is harder to perform than either dogmatism or shrugging.
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The useful part is that it applies to action, not just belief. You can move decisively on a strong probability without pretending the probability is a guarantee.
That advice is easier to follow when the cost of being wrong is a changed mind. When the cost is a bridge that falls down, 'never certain' starts to sound like a luxury of the seminar room.