Toronto's Mayoral Race Is a Dead Heat Before Ontario's Municipal Vote
Ontario's municipal election day is Monday, with more than 11.8 million Ontarians eligible to vote, according to the Association of Municipalities of Ontario. In Toronto, the mayoral race has largely been a two-way contest between incumbent Olivia Chow, elected in 2023, and two-term city councillor Brad Bradford.
A Liaison Strategies poll last week called the pair a 'statistical dead heat'; Bradford was at 49 per cent and Chow at 47 per cent among decided and leaning voters surveyed. The two-point gap is a reminder that 'dead heat' is doing some work here: it describes the contest, not a comfortable lead.
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The 'dead heat' framing is about the two candidates who broke through; dozens of others are also vying for the job, which makes the two-way story a poll result rather than a ballot fact.
A two-point lead is still a lead; calling it a dead heat is a convention for a close race, not a finding that the difference is meaningless.