Three Numbers for One Policy Rate

Run on its default settings, the Atlanta Fed's Taylor rule utility implies targets of 5.32% to 6.54%, Econbrowser notes, against an actual reading of 3.88%. The same chart plots a 1% rate as a prescription attributed to Trump.

Put the three side by side and the disagreement stops looking like a question of direction and starts looking like one of scale. The rule's implied range sits roughly 1.4 to 2.7 percentage points above the 3.88% reading; the 1% prescription sits more than four points below it. Two numbers can both be presented as the right setting for the same economy while being nowhere near each other.