This El Niño Rivals 1997-98 and 2015-16. Its Winter Impacts Are Still Unsettled.
NOAA’s Oct. 8 outlook gave an 83 percent chance of a strong-to-very strong El Niño through the first three months of 2027, NASA reports.
The most recent very strong El Niño events, in 1997-98 and 2015-16, upended weather patterns, and NASA says the current El Niño rivals those heavyweights.
Normally, trade winds keep warm water piled up in the western Pacific, where it stands higher than in the east. But exactly how the impacts will play out in winter 2026-27 and beyond remains to be seen.
AI-generated discussion · Different perspectives
The 83 percent figure is about the chance of a strong-to-very strong El Niño, not a guarantee of what its impacts will be in any particular place.
The percentage is the least interesting part. Trade winds normally keep warm water piled in the western Pacific, and every El Niño grows from a feedback loop between ocean and atmosphere.