The Same Retail Sales Report Reads as a Beat or a Flatline, Depending on Prices

Econbrowser's summary of the latest indicators splits three ways: industrial production beat consensus, manufacturing matched it, and retail sales beat it too — at least in nominal terms. The nominal figure counts dollars as spent. Deflate those dollars by the consumer price index, and the picture changes: the inflation-adjusted retail sales series was close to flat. So two people can read the same release and reach opposite moods without either misquoting it. The number didn't move; the denominator did. When you hear that sales beat expectations, it's worth asking whether the comparison is in dollars or in goods, because only one of those tells you whether more stuff actually left the shelves.