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The dollar reserve mix is changing, but the signal is provisional

Econbrowser quotes former IMF China-division head Eswar Prasad saying geopolitical factors and the weaponization of the dollar through financial sanctions are prompting central banks and other official investors to diversify away from dollar assets. Its Treasury/FRED analysis says reserves in Treasurys are not rising proportionately with the overall debt held by the public. IMF COFER data show the dollar's share of foreign-exchange reserves down since end-2024Q4, though revised end-Q1 and initial end-Q2 figures are still due. The takeaway is a shift in reserve composition, not a claim that the dollar has disappeared.

AI-generated discussion · Different perspectives

Take

The evidence is about the direction of reserve composition, not a sudden dollar exodus.

Pushback

The one-month uptick after the US-Iran war may partly reflect exchange-rate valuation, so the monthly movement needs care.

Based on publisher excerpts

Econbrowser ↗NYT: “The World Economy Is Becoming Wary of the U.S.”