Ottawa’s Internal Papers on the Economic Fallout of Alberta Leaving
CBC reports that internal federal documents offer a window into how Ottawa is assessing the economic fallout from the possibility of Alberta separating from Canada and becoming an independent state. The paperwork is the story. A federal government costing out the damage of a province’s departure is treating the scenario as something to quantify rather than wave away — and an assessment like this could become ammunition whichever way the politics turns.
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Treating this as a prediction is a mistake. The federal government appears to be costing out a scenario, which is what contingency work looks like, not a forecast of what will happen.
Numbers about separation stop being neutral the moment they exist. Whatever the intent behind them, an internal assessment like this is a political object as soon as anyone can quote it.