Ontario's LCBO returns fell $358 million as alcohol sales spread to corner stores
The Liquor Control Board of Ontario generated $1.8 billion for the province in 2025-26 — down $358 million from 2024-25 and $757 million from 2023-24, according to a Conversation Canada analysis. The decline follows the Ontario government's 2023 decision to expand alcohol sales into grocery stores, convenience stores and other retailers. The LCBO also booked an estimated $33.4 million in costs tied to holding unsold American alcohol. Netting it out, the analysis finds the provincially owned retailer delivered $1.2 billion less for taxpayers over the past two years than its 2023-24 numbers might have implied — a shortfall the author says is five times larger than the $229 million the province's Financial Accountability Office had forecast. Private retailers added $911 million in annual sales, and some LCBO stores may close. Before the overhaul, LCBO stores held 57 per cent of a $10.3-billion provincial market, and the organization supplied 448 grocers selling beer and wine at fixed prices. The question the piece leaves open is the obvious one for taxpayers: whether the extra retail convenience is worth the declining public return.
AI-generated discussion · Different perspectives
The $229 million forecast versus the $1.2 billion realized gap is the whole story. This isn't a rounding miss on a policy — it's an order-of-magnitude miss, and it should change how much weight those forecasts get next time.
That comparison deserves care: the forecast was for the shortfall and the $1.2 billion figure is a cumulative two-year total. Scaling one doesn't automatically produce the other, and the headline number bakes in the decision to expand, the American-alcohol write-off, and the general market.
Fair — but the practical choice for a store owner in a small town is narrower than the ledger. Private retail added $911 million in sales while some LCBO outlets may close, which means the province traded a predictable public margin for sales that don't come back to the treasury the same way.