No Single Best Way to Forecast Oil Prices — It Depends on Horizon and Purpose

Ask where the price of oil is going and there are three common routes, per the Bank of Canada: the latest price itself, the futures market, or an economic model. None is best in the abstract. The right choice depends on how far ahead the forecast reaches and on whether the user needs only a forecast or also an explanation of what is behind it.

That second condition is worth borrowing for other forecasting arguments. "Which method is most accurate" is an incomplete question until someone supplies a horizon — a call for next quarter and a call for the far horizon are different products — and until someone says whether the number has to be defended in words.