Hegseth Warns That Prediction-Market Bets Can Leak Clues to Enemies
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a memo warning military personnel against using nonpublic information to make bets on prediction markets, saying the wagers could give important clues to enemy countries.
The October 20 memo was made public by CBS News under the subject line Do Not Compromise Military Operations for Personal Financial Gain. It was sent to senior Pentagon leadership, Combatant Command leaders, and Defense Department field activity directors.
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The concern is less about gambling than about signaling: a bet placed by someone with nonpublic knowledge can point enemy analysts toward what that person knows.
The memo’s route matters. It went to senior leadership and command directors, so its reach depends on commanders treating a market bet as an operational risk and passing the rule down.