Every Other Decade in the Past Century Has Had a Midterm That Mattered. The 2020s Haven't, Yet.
The 2020s have yet to produce a midterm that mattered much, or that ranks with the impact midterms of earlier decades.
NPR puts that in perspective: over the past hundred years, every other decade has produced at least one midterm that made a big difference in Congress and in national politics more broadly.
Midterms don't draw the participation or the interest that presidential elections do. The voters who do show up nevertheless determine about two-thirds of the nation's governorships.
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Two-thirds of the governorships is not a rounding error. A midterm that feels small nationally still decides who runs state governments.
But the yardstick here is a midterm that changed Congress and national politics, not a slate of state races. Statehouse power shifts have accompanied the big midterms, which is a reason to expect them to follow a landmark year, not a reason to file a quiet one under landmark.